
{"id":5281,"date":"2023-09-13T20:38:01","date_gmt":"2023-09-13T18:38:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/parlonstechs.com\/all\/?p=5281"},"modified":"2023-09-13T20:41:13","modified_gmt":"2023-09-13T18:41:13","slug":"spacex-un-quasi-monopole-qui-inquiete","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/parlonstechs.com\/all\/2023\/09\/13\/spacex-un-quasi-monopole-qui-inquiete\/","title":{"rendered":"SpaceX, un quasi-monopole qui inqui\u00e8te"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" src=\"https:\/\/parlonstechs.com\/all\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-38-1024x538.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5282\" srcset=\"https:\/\/parlonstechs.com\/all\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-38-1024x538.png 1024w, https:\/\/parlonstechs.com\/all\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-38-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/parlonstechs.com\/all\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-38-768x403.png 768w, https:\/\/parlonstechs.com\/all\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-38.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Faute de concurrents aptes au vol, SpaceX est en quasi-monopole sur le segment des lanceurs lourds occidentaux. Il domine aussi largement le march\u00e9 des constellations de connectivit\u00e9 en orbite basse, avec Starlink.\u00a0Une d\u00e9pendance qui inqui\u00e8te les op\u00e9rateurs, et m\u00eame le client institutionnel am\u00e9ricain.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Le chiffre, in\u00e9dit, a de quoi interpeller. Alors que s\u2019ouvre du 11 au 15 septembre\u00a0\u00e0 Paris la World Satellite Business Week, la grande conf\u00e9rence annuelle du secteur spatial, SpaceX a d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9alis\u00e9 62 tirs se ses lanceurs Falcon 9 et Falcon Heavy depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, soit \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s la moiti\u00e9 des lancements mondiaux, et 95% des tirs de lanceurs comparables occidentaux. M\u00eame si elle est largement port\u00e9e par les besoins propres de SpaceX (qui lance en majorit\u00e9 ses\u00a0satellites de connectivit\u00e9 Starlink), la performance est remarquable. Le groupe a d\u00e9j\u00e0 plus lanc\u00e9 en neuf mois que toute l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re. Si l\u2019objectif d\u2019Elon Musk de r\u00e9aliser 100 tirs sur l\u2019ann\u00e9e appara\u00eet ambitieux, le groupe californien va donc largement battre son record de 2022 (61 tirs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La concurrence\u00a0? Elle appara\u00eet plus que jamais largu\u00e9e. Ariane 5, apr\u00e8s le succ\u00e8s des deux derniers lancements de son histoire, est \u00e0 la retraite. Sa rempla\u00e7ante Ariane 6, longtemps annonc\u00e9e pour fin 2023,\u00a0a vu son premier vol report\u00e9 \u00e0 2024.\u00a0Les rivaux am\u00e9ricains de SpaceX patinent tout autant. ULA, coentreprise entre Boeing et Lockheed Martin, n\u2019a effectu\u00e9 qu\u2019un tir de Delta IV depuis janvier, et son nouveau lanceur Vulcan est sans cesse repouss\u00e9\u00a0: il est d\u00e9sormais pr\u00e9vu, au mieux, en fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e. Le New Glenn de Blue Origin (Jeff Bezos), lanceur lourd pr\u00e9vu pour 2020, approche des quatre ans de retard. Le groupe a publi\u00e9 ces derniers jours quelques photos de son usine floridienne, mais la date du premier vol reste un myst\u00e8re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hausse des prix<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>La Russie plafonne \u00e0 une douzaine de lancements (dix de Soyouz, deux de Proton). L\u2019Inde est \u00e0 6. Seuls les lanceurs chinois soutiennent un tant soit peu la comparaison avec SpaceX, avec 38 tirs de lanceurs Longue Marche depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Mais du fait de la r\u00e9glementation am\u00e9ricaine ITAR, ils ne peuvent lancer aucune charge int\u00e9grant des composants am\u00e9ricains, ce qui limite drastiquement leur expansion internationale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette situation de quasi-monopole de SpaceX inqui\u00e8te les op\u00e9rateurs. \u00ab\u00a0L\u2019acc\u00e8s \u00e0 l\u2019espace est extr\u00eamement important pour Eutelsat, nous essayons donc d\u2019avoir de multiples fournisseurs de lancements,\u00a0soulignait la patronne d\u2019Eutelsat Eva Berneke en juin 2022 au Paris Air Forum.\u00a0Nous avons besoin d\u2019un march\u00e9 concurrentiel.\u00a0\u00bb Le risque du monopole est double\u00a0: une impossibilit\u00e9 \u00e0 lancer les satellites dans les d\u00e9lais pr\u00e9vus, faute de lanceurs disponibles\u00a0; et une hausse des tarifs des lancements.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SpaceX a d\u2019ailleurs d\u00e9j\u00e0 augment\u00e9 ses prix, ce qu\u2019il justifie par les effets de l\u2019inflation. En 2022, le lancement de Falcon 9 est pass\u00e9 de 62 \u00e0 67 millions de dollars, celui du lanceur lourd Falcon Heavy de 90 \u00e0 97 millions.&nbsp;Pour les missions en \u00ab\u00a0rideshare\u00a0\u00bb&nbsp;(lancements de multiples satellites de petite taille), le prix au kilo est pass\u00e9 de 5.000 \u00e0 6.500 dollars en deux ans, soit une hausse de pr\u00e8s d\u2019un tiers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">D\u00e9pendance du Pentagone<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>SpaceX, en position ultradominante sur le segment des lanceurs, l\u2019est tout autant sur son activit\u00e9 de connectivit\u00e9 internet par satellite (Starlink). La constellation a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 fin ao\u00fbt la barre des 5.000 satellites en orbite. Son nombre de clients devrait atteindre 2,2 millions fin 2023, selon le cabinet Euroconsult. Ce dernier estime le chiffre d\u2019affaires de l\u2019activit\u00e9 Starlink \u00e0 3,2 milliards de dollars cette ann\u00e9e. A titre de comparaison, le plus gros concurrent, OneWeb, est \u00e0 50 millions de dollars de ventes sur les six premiers mois de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Supr\u00eame humiliation, du fait de la guerre en Ukraine qui l\u2019a priv\u00e9 des lancements pr\u00e9vus sur Soyouz,\u00a0OneWeb, en cours de fusion avec l\u2019op\u00e9rateur Eutelsat, a d\u00fb\u00a0\u00a0faire appel \u00e0 SpaceX pour lancer les derniers de ses 618 satellites d\u00e9sormais en orbite. Quant aux autres concurrents sur le segment de la connectivit\u00e9 en orbite basse, comme Kuiper (Amazon) ou Lightspeed (Telesat), ils n\u2019ont pour l\u2019instant pas lanc\u00e9 le moindre satellite. Les premiers prototypes de la constellation Kuiper doivent d\u00e9coller \u00e0 partir du 26 septembre sur un Atlas V d\u2019ULA. Les premiers lancements de Lightspeed sont annonc\u00e9s pour 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>M\u00eame le gouvernement am\u00e9ricain se d\u00e9couvre d\u00e9pendant de SpaceX, devenu un \u00e9norme fournisseur de la Nasa et du Pentagone. Le groupe envoie vers la Station spatiale internationale les astronautes de la Nasa. Il met sur orbite une bonne partie des satellites GPS III, la derni\u00e8re g\u00e9n\u00e9ration du syst\u00e8me de positionnement. Il d\u00e9veloppe l\u2019atterrisseur lunaire des missions Artemis de retour des astronautes am\u00e9ricains sur la Lune, bas\u00e9 sur le vaisseau Starship. La Nasa et le minist\u00e8re de la d\u00e9fense essaient de pousser la concurrence (Boeing pour les vols habit\u00e9s, ULA pour les lanceurs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Plus de concurrence en 2025 ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Mais la d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 SpaceX est extr\u00eamement forte, au point que certains experts am\u00e9ricains parlent de monopole. \u00ab\u00a0Il n\u2019y a qu\u2019une chose pire qu\u2019un monopole gouvernemental, c\u2019est un monopole priv\u00e9 dont d\u00e9pend le gouvernement, pr\u00e9venait l\u2019ancien patron de la Nasa Jim Bridenstine au New Yorker fin ao\u00fbt.&nbsp;Je crains que&nbsp;nous ayons mis tous nos \u0153ufs dans le m\u00eame panier, et c&rsquo;est le panier de SpaceX.\u00a0\u00bb&nbsp;John Holst, ancien officier des op\u00e9rations spatiales de l\u2019US Air Force, est sur la m\u00eame ligne&nbsp;: \u00ab\u00a0Le fait est que la concurrence ne peut rien faire pour le moment, et cela fait de SpaceX un monopole de facto\u00a0\u00bb,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/elon-musks-spacex-now-has-a-de-facto-monopoly-on-rocket-launches-3c34f02e#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">indiquait-il en juillet au Wall Street Journal<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ce n\u2019est pas Elon Musk qui s\u2019en plaindra. La valorisation de SpaceX, selon CNBC, atteignait 150 milliards de dollars en juillet, soit un chiffre comparable \u00e0 celles de Disney ou Intel, et une augmentation de 50% en deux ans. Selon le site The Information, le groupe pr\u00e9voit de doubler son chiffre d\u2019affaires cette ann\u00e9e, avec 8 milliards de dollars de ventes, contre 4 milliards en 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quand ce monopole de fait prendra-t-il fin\u00a0? \u00ab\u00a0En 2025, on peut imaginer que Ariane 6 et Vulcan seront arriv\u00e9s sur le march\u00e9, avec une cadence solide\u00a0\u00bb, estime Arthur Sauzay, auteur de plusieurs rapports sur le secteur spatial pour l\u2019Institut Montaigne.\u00a0Pour le New Glenn de Blue Origin, on risque d\u2019attendre un peu plus\u00a0\u00bb.\u00a0Mais SpaceX devrait, lui aussi avoir avanc\u00e9, avec un lanceur g\u00e9ant Starship dont il assure qu\u2019il va encore permettre de casser les prix. Un deuxi\u00e8me tir d&rsquo;essai est pr\u00e9vu ces prochains jours depuis\u00a0la base spatiale de Boca Chica (Texas), que Challenges avait visit\u00e9e en juin dernier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>avec challenges<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Faute de concurrents aptes au vol, SpaceX est en quasi-monopole sur le segment des lanceurs lourds occidentaux. Il domine aussi largement le march\u00e9 des constellations de connectivit\u00e9 en orbite basse, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5285,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualite","category-espace"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>SpaceX, un quasi-monopole qui inqui\u00e8te - Parlons Techs - Store<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/parlonstechs.com\/all\/2023\/09\/13\/spacex-un-quasi-monopole-qui-inquiete\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SpaceX, un quasi-monopole qui inqui\u00e8te - ParlonsTechs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Faute de concurrents aptes au vol, SpaceX est en quasi-monopole sur le segment des lanceurs lourds occidentaux. 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